ECQ is afoot, Why time and effort are more crucial this time around

Due to the possible COVID-19 surge prompted by the Delta Variant, it was announced that the National Capital Region (NCR) will be placed under Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) from August 6-20. Aside from the economy being potentially hit once more, another concern arises — how will this affect vaccine rollout amid the strict lockdown period?

As of August 2, 2021, at least 20.9 million Filipinos have received their first jab of the COVID-19 vaccine and at least 9.12 million of them have received their second jab. That brings the total percentage of up to 8.4% of the country considered to be fully vaccinated; a steady increase since the vaccine rollout officially began last March 1, 2021. So what’s the catch? Despite the increase in inoculation numbers, the Philippines will be placed under ECQ for the next couple of weeks which means limited movement once again to curb the threat of the new variant.

As Filipinos prepare for another lockdown, the government is also preparing for another surge in confirmed cases. Here are some of the things that are expected to happen in the next two weeks.

Containing the Delta Variant

As of August 3, 2021, there are a total of 63,137 active COVID-19 cases in the Philippines but experts say that this may increase to an alarming 500,000 next month due to the new Delta Variant strain. The ECQ is being implemented to control the rise of the Delta Variant cases which was last reported to be at a total of 216 cases. However, the Department of Health (DOH) has already confirmed local transmission of the variant and its possible implications.

OCTA Research Team expert Dr. Guido David said that the Philippines could have as much as 2,000 infections of Delta Variant due to the low ability of genome sequencing, a process that allows the tracking of small mutations in SARS-CoV2, the virus that causes COVID-19, meaning chains of transmission can be identified. Based on a projection, the current genome sequencing capabilities of the Philippines only account for 100 samples per day out of 8,000 average COVID-19 cases, which is less than 2% of the country’s total number of virus infections. These figures are based on last week’s COVID-19 situation, and an updated projection may indicate higher cases.

More vaccinations

Despite the restrictions posed by the ECQ, the national government made it clear that this would not stop the vaccine rollout but rather, increase the amount of vaccine administrations during this period. During the last seven days, the Philippines averaged about 523,018 doses administered each day. At that rate, it will take 48 days to administer enough doses to fully vaccinate another 10% of the population.

The government aims to vaccinate up to 70% of the population in 2021 which means a daily average of 350,000 to 500,000 jabs will be needed to achieve that target. The government is also set to administer 250,000 COVID-19 jabs daily during ECQ in Metro Manila alone. If vaccine rollout is effectively fast-tracked during the enhanced lockdown, better results and numbers may be anticipated after this period.

Updated Vaccination Measures

During this time, only senior citizens and people with comorbidities or those who fall under the A2 and A3 groups are eligible for walk-ins in vaccination sites since they are the most at-risk groups. However, those outside these categories are only expected to arrive upon confirmation of their appointments due to vaccination management since the supply will not be enough to cover for the demand.

To help speed up vaccine administration, Metro Manila is currently targeting to receive 4 million doses during the ECQ period but has only confirmed that 2.5 million have been procured. In Manila, Mayor Isko Moreno announced that they plan to open 24/7 vaccination sites to fast-track the administration of the 4 million targeted doses that will be deployed. It was also announced that nearly 3,000 Filipinos in the area have already volunteered for this cause. A final announcement has yet to be made due to the limited supply of vaccines.

Why was ECQ inevitable?

This was the government’s way of saying “we need to act now, rather than later.” Learning from countries like India, Thailand, and Malaysia which saw the rapid spread of the Delta Variant, local health officials have raised the issue that the Philippines might not be ready for it. “We are preparing ourselves, but our resources are finite. We are not capable of handling another surge that will be 3x to 4x compared to last year,” Health Usec Leopoldo Vega said in an interview on August 2, 2021.

To isolate and limit those who might have been exposed or infected to the Delta Variant, the government chose a two-week lockdown period which is ideally the same amount of time it takes for a person with COVID-19 to become less infectious to others or to reveal possible antibodies. However, none of these components would matter without seeing the end result in terms of vaccinating, treating, and tracing more Filipinos all over the country.

While the ECQ is necessary to contain the spread from further escalation, both citizens and government need to do their part to ensure that the sacrifices made during this enhanced lockdown will not have been for nothing.

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